Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 20.070354 24.179089 28.713701 34.062346 40.170274 46.899299 54.843725
2025-07-13 14.486333 19.949206 26.600140 35.171585 45.794469 58.393202 74.319287
2025-07-20 11.287504 17.300721 25.204001 36.086403 50.390201 68.245052 91.876928
2025-07-27 9.264987 15.581627 24.440157 37.317905 55.054997 78.091267 109.662221
2025-08-03 7.710774 14.133208 23.687154 38.257332 59.150512 87.208735 126.788666
2025-08-10 6.169529 12.355163 22.120690 37.730541 60.996768 93.241427 139.960796
2025-08-17 5.164275 11.222134 21.314497 38.129662 64.042923 100.928966 155.584326
2025-08-24 4.256258 10.056177 20.255604 37.954741 66.120662 107.242008 169.464930
2025-08-31 3.349914 8.681904 18.623888 36.634149 66.265486 110.659795 179.272149
2025-09-07 2.879865 8.066883 18.216286 37.249495 69.398962 118.547284 195.757590
2025-09-14 2.317635 7.114777 17.038933 36.391749 70.051394 122.659939 206.785833
2025-09-21 2.037842 6.737747 16.900460 37.330385 73.668318 131.422296 225.013864
2025-09-28 1.493085 5.587354 15.102062 35.177489 72.157581 132.471632 232.221171
2025-10-05 1.295315 5.293294 15.059880 36.351866 76.495777 143.089106 254.688129
2025-10-12 1.112039 4.978646 14.915039 37.293391 80.458730 153.251846 276.803031
2025-10-19 0.974261 4.755154 14.937558 38.557436 85.058092 164.629215 301.208219
2025-10-26 0.840895 4.495848 14.827254 39.521414 89.141893 175.290850 324.804824
2025-11-02 0.665428 4.007378 14.054046 38.980880 90.343936 181.104163 340.739695
2025-11-09 0.555865 3.717730 13.738061 39.390418 93.358859 190.109498 362.140137
2025-11-16 0.446783 3.369399 13.191736 39.210935 95.189536 197.100321 380.403266
2025-11-23 0.329442 2.899948 12.193613 37.855751 94.564044 199.702097 391.385134
2025-11-30 0.277341 2.726474 12.039568 38.487247 97.983753 209.626901 414.984061
2025-12-07 0.207689 2.393171 11.307121 37.606972 98.206259 213.755854 428.809536